MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2425Lower is better
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate49.55%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate57.71%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.81%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.36%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6087Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2426Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2470Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate52.63%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches551Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 1-10 of 551 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
22-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionReal Madrid vs Ath Madrid1X2
Home58.50%
Home3-2
HITHigh77/100
22-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionAth Bilbao vs Betis1X2
Home46.88%
Home2-1
HITMedium67/100
22-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionCelta vs Alaves1X2
Home56.90%
Away3-4
MISSHigh80/100
22-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionBarcelona vs Vallecano1X2
Home88.36%
Home1-0
HITHigh91/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga ISp Braga vs Porto1X2
Away50.02%
Away1-2
HITHigh75/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga IAlverca vs Sp Lisbon1X2
Away84.27%
Away1-4
HITHigh88/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga IEstoril vs Rio Ave1X2
Home61.02%
Away1-2
MISSHigh81/100
22-03-26Netherlands - EredivisieTelstar vs PSV Eindhoven1X2
Away88.55%
Home3-1
MISSHigh92/100
22-03-26Netherlands - EredivisieGroningen vs AZ Alkmaar1X2
Away47.89%
Home3-0
MISSHigh70/100
22-03-26Netherlands - EredivisieUtrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles1X2
Home51.83%
Home2-0
HITHigh73/100
22-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Real Madrid vs Ath Madrid

1X2
PredictedHome58.50%
ActualHome3-2
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh77/100
22-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Ath Bilbao vs Betis

1X2
PredictedHome46.88%
ActualHome2-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceMedium67/100
22-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Celta vs Alaves

1X2
PredictedHome56.90%
ActualAway3-4
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh80/100
22-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Barcelona vs Vallecano

1X2
PredictedHome88.36%
ActualHome1-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh91/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Sp Braga vs Porto

1X2
PredictedAway50.02%
ActualAway1-2
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh75/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Alverca vs Sp Lisbon

1X2
PredictedAway84.27%
ActualAway1-4
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh88/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Estoril vs Rio Ave

1X2
PredictedHome61.02%
ActualAway1-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh81/100
22-03-26Netherlands - Eredivisie

Telstar vs PSV Eindhoven

1X2
PredictedAway88.55%
ActualHome3-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh92/100
22-03-26Netherlands - Eredivisie

Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar

1X2
PredictedAway47.89%
ActualHome3-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh70/100
22-03-26Netherlands - Eredivisie

Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles

1X2
PredictedHome51.83%
ActualHome2-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh73/100
Showing 1-10 of 551 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.